Jobs outlook worsens in October
America’s unemployed are only seeing gloom and doom. The job picture worsened in October 2009. The Consumer Confidence Index, released by The Conference Board, sank unexpectedly to 47.7 in October — its second-lowest reading since May. Forecasters predicted a higher reading of 53.1. A reading above 90 means the economy is on solid footing. Above 100 signals strong growth. The index has seesawed since reaching a historic low of 25.3 in February and climbed to 53.4 in September.
The mixed signals continue. We feel, at the very least, the picture is going to be gloomy for the next few months.
Reason # 1: Small businesses, the growth factor of the economy, are in a wait and see mode. Their biggest gripe – the health care reform and possibly higher taxes – on top of the worst recession since the great depression. Until they see a clearer picture of the economy, they are not going to hire.
Reason # 2: Another reason it is going to be gloomy is that companies traditionally hire at the start of the year when their budgets open. This year they are getting by with whatever they have.
Reason # 3: Consumer confidence is low and we expect a damper on the Christmas shopping season. Particularly bad news for retailers who depend on Q4 for most of their sales. Most companies will not report good earnings for Q4 2009 and that will lead to further belt tightening.
So where do we go from here ? Just be happy that the outlook for 2010 is better than 2009.
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I’m also looking forward for a better year for 2010. This year was a disaster for employers and especially employees who were laid off.